Documentation

Bayzen Documentation

Forecast markets with rules, evidence, and a record.

Learn how Bayzen uses Signal Points, Canton Coin, evidence-based resolution, and Canton-native workflows to create markets across assets, protocols, projects, and ecosystem events.

v0.1 · Protocol Draft In Development · Not Live
Current status Bayzen is currently in development. Features described in this documentation represent the target Mainnet design unless explicitly marked otherwise.

Bayzen Signal Prediction Market

Bayzen is a Canton-native platform for creator-made prediction markets across crypto and traditional assets, protocol events, project milestones, and ecosystem events. Research-backed forecasts become measurable, verifiable track records.

Forecasts shared online can be edited or deleted, research often lacks a measurable outcome, and follower counts do not establish forecasting skill. Bayzen gives each market a defined question, evidence source, deadline, resolution rule, and verifiable result.

Product focus

Designed for

Canton and crypto markets, stocks and ETFs, futures and perpetuals, commodities, protocol events, project milestones, and ecosystem events.

Outside the focus

Politics, sports, entertainment, celebrity events, and random social events.

Related: How Bayzen Works →

Start Here

How Bayzen Works

A market moves from a researched question to evidence-based resolution, settlement, and an updated performance record.

Target workflow

  1. Eligible Creator Receives Starter SP
  2. Submit Research & Forecast
  3. Lock SP Bond
  4. Market Review
  5. Take Position with CC
  6. Market Closes
  7. Evidence Check
  8. Provisional Outcome
  9. Challenge Window
  10. Final Outcome
  11. CC Payout
  12. SP Bond Returned
  13. Publisher Reward Released
  14. Signal Passport Updated

In plain language

The current app prototype simulates email verification and one generated wallet. In the target design, the application would provision or associate a wallet with a Canton Party hosted on a participant node. Market Participant and Market Creator remain non-exclusive roles on the same application identity, so changing roles does not create another wallet or Party ID.

In the Market Creator role, an eligible user submits research and a declared forecast, then locks SP as a reusable Quality Bond. Review checks the question, evidence, deadline, and resolution rules before positions open.

Eligible users other than the market creator take positions with Canton Coin. After the deadline, a separate off-chain resolver service checks the predefined evidence and submits a provisional outcome. An unchallenged result can be finalized automatically; disputed or ambiguous results move to review. Operator independence and conflict controls remain readiness requirements.

Clean resolution returns the same SP bond, pays winning participants, and releases a publisher reward equal to 20% of the settlement fee up to the cap published before opening. Participant and creator records can then be updated in Signal Passport.

Related: Market Lifecycle →

Product

Markets & Categories

Every market must be answerable through a fixed rule and predefined evidence.

Required market fields

  • A binary two-outcome question and category.
  • A clear threshold, closing date and time, and timezone.
  • A primary data source and a fallback data source.
  • A resolution rule and a cancellation rule.
  • Creator research and a declared forecast.

Primary example

Example market
Will the 15-minute CC/USD TWAP close above $0.18 on 30 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC?

The positive outcome wins if the predefined 15-minute TWAP is greater than $0.18. The negative outcome wins if the result is equal to or below $0.18, because the question uses the word above.

The creator's research, declared forecast, data source, calculation method, threshold, cutoff, resolution rule, and cancellation rule are locked when the market opens, before any position can be accepted. A material correction requires withdrawing and republishing the market.

Target categories

Canton & crypto

Canton assets, crypto assets, memecoins, futures, and perpetuals with approved evidence sources.

Traditional markets

Stocks, ETFs, and commodities with permitted evidence sources.

Protocol & project events

Protocol events, project milestones, and ecosystem events resolved under a fixed rule.

Curated scope

Categories expand only after the core lifecycle proves reliable.

Related: Resolution & Challenges →

Product

Signal Points & Creators

Signal Points are reusable publishing capacity and a creator Quality Bond, not a tradable asset.

Protocol Draft

What SP are

Signal Points, or SP, are non-purchasable and non-transferable creation credits used to propose markets and form a reusable Quality Bond. SP are not used for positions, cannot be exchanged for CC or money, are not a cryptocurrency or Bayzen token, and have no guaranteed monetary value.

In the target design, eligible users who opt into the Market Creator role receive Starter SP only after completing creator eligibility checks. Email login and generated-wallet provisioning alone do not grant SP.

Quality Bond lifecycle

  1. Available SP
  2. Locked SP
  3. Market Resolution
  4. Return or Burn

When a creator submits a market, SP move from Available SP to Locked SP and become a Quality Bond. A clean final resolution returns the same SP for reuse. If review rejects a proposal before it opens, the bond returns unless review identifies a policy breach, deceptive specification, or manipulation; a rejected proposal never earns a publisher reward. An invalid or manipulative market can burn some or all of the bond. SP are never awarded for position count, volume, user count, or artificial activity.

Quality rules

Quality can consider

Question clarity, valid evidence, objective rules, clean resolution, no publisher-fault finding, policy compliance, and no self-dealing or wash trading.

Quality does not depend on

Participant count, wallet count, CC volume, linked-account activity, or artificial transaction activity.

If a market is invalid or manipulative, some or all of the bond may be burned, creator reputation may fall, and creation access may be restricted. If cancellation results from source failure, insufficient liquidity, or a system issue outside the creator's control, the bond is returned and no publisher reward is paid because no settlement occurs.

Related: Creator & Participant Eligibility →

Product

CC Positions & Payouts

Canton Coin is the position and settlement asset in the target pooled market design.

Protocol Draft

How CC is used

CC is used for positions, settlement, payouts, refunds, and the Bayzen settlement fee. The target design uses Canton Network Token Standard workflows for CC funding, reservation, transfer, and payout while Bayzen contracts record market state and settlement authorization. CC is not used to buy SP, creator reputation, or a Signal Passport score. When a user creates a market, the same wallet and verified identity cannot take a paid position in that market, but the user may participate in markets published by other eligible creators. After clean resolution, the creator may receive only the fee-based reward defined below.

Allocation design status. CIP-0056 allocations are directed commitments with a defined sender, receiver, amount, executor, and deadline. Before Mainnet, Bayzen must validate the pool receiver and executor model, aggregation of participant allocations, cancellation and withdrawal constraints, and the payout and refund transaction flow.

Pooled pari-mutuel model

  • Positive-outcome positions enter the positive pool.
  • Negative-outcome positions enter the negative pool.
  • Winning positions share the distributable pool proportionally after final resolution.
  • Estimated payouts may change until the market closes and are not guaranteed.
Conceptual formula
Losing Pool =
Total CC on Losing Side

Settlement Fee =
Losing Pool × 2%

Gross Publisher Reward =
Settlement Fee × 20%

Protocol Cap =
Per-market CC ceiling published before opening

Final Publisher Reward =
min(Gross Publisher Reward, Protocol Cap)

Bayzen & Resolution Reserve =
Settlement Fee − Final Publisher Reward

Distributable Pool =
Total Pool − Settlement Fee

User Payout =
(User Winning Position ÷ Total Winning Pool)
× Distributable Pool

The 2% settlement fee applies only to completed markets and is deducted from the losing pool. The publisher receives 20% of that fee, equal to 0.4% of the losing pool before the published per-market cap. The remaining fee supports Bayzen, resolution, and reserve. This application fee is separate from Canton network traffic costs. A cancelled market refunds all positions, charges no fee, pays no publisher reward, and returns the SP bond when the publisher is not at fault.

Model boundary The MVP target does not describe an orderbook, automated market maker, limit orders, secondary trading, or tradable outcome tokens.
Related: Market Rules & Risks →

Product

Signal Passport

A planned record that separates publisher forecasting quality from participant position history.

Planned

Target performance record

  • Resolved publisher calls, declared probability, Brier Score, calibration, and sample size.
  • Locked publisher research, timestamps, outcomes, evidence references, and complete market history.
  • Participant position history, resolved results, CC profit and loss, and sample size.
  • Publisher clean-resolution rate, invalid-market rate, and capped reward history.

A publisher's declared probability is separate from a participant's CC position. A participant's side or stake size is not treated as probability.

A shareable Signal Passport is an application-generated summary derived from records visible to entitled parties. Publication or auditor access requires a deliberate authorization or sharing action.

Binary Brier loss

Common scoring form
(p − o)²

p = declared probability
o = final outcome, expressed as 1 or 0
lower score = better calibrated forecast

For the target MVP, Brier scoring applies to the publisher's probability locked before publication. A participant's binary position and CC stake do not by themselves produce a Brier Score.

Confidence entry, Brier scoring, calibration, and advanced Signal Passport analytics remain planned. They must not be interpreted as active product features.

Related: Research Foundations →

Protocol

Market Lifecycle

Each state limits what can happen next and keeps market rules stable after positions begin.

Primary states

01

Draft

The creator prepares the question, evidence, deadline, and rules. No positions are accepted.

02

Under Review

Bayzen checks whether the proposal is clear and resolvable. Review does not guarantee approval.

03

Open

Eligible participants can take one of the market's two outcome positions with CC.

04

Closed

New positions stop. The evidence check begins after the defined deadline.

05

Provisional Resolution

The resolver submits a rule-based provisional outcome.

06

Challenge Window

Eligible challenges may be submitted with evidence before finalization.

07

Finalized

The result is final under the market's fixed rules.

08

Paid

Winning payouts or required refunds have been processed.

Alternative states

Rejected
The proposal did not pass review and never opened. Its SP bond returns unless review identifies a policy breach, deceptive specification, or manipulation.
Cancelled
The market cannot continue under its cancellation rule.
Invalid
The market cannot be resolved reliably or violated applicable rules.
Refunded
Participant CC has been returned.
Challenged
The provisional result is under review before finalization.
Related: Resolution & Challenges →

Protocol

Resolution & Challenges

A hybrid model combines predefined external evidence with a Daml-enforced review window.

Resolution workflow

  1. Market Closes
  2. Resolver Reads Source
  3. Provisional Outcome
  4. Challenge Window
  5. Automatic or Reviewed Finalization
  6. Final Outcome
  7. Payout

Daml does not retrieve internet data directly. An off-chain resolver reads the predefined source, applies the exact market rule, and submits a provisional outcome. Daml contracts enforce the challenge deadline, authorization, and allowed state transition; an off-chain automation service submits finalization after the deadline when no valid challenge exists.

Bayzen intervenes only when there is a dispute, source failure, or material data ambiguity. A challenged result is reviewed against the market's fixed evidence and rule before finalization. An upheld challenge may correct the provisional outcome or void the market without penalizing the publisher when the issue comes from resolver or source error. Bond slashing is reserved for publisher fault or manipulation under predeclared rules.

Illustrative CC/USD example

  • The resolver reads the predefined third-party 15-minute CC/USD TWAP source.
  • If TWAP is greater than $0.18, the provisional outcome is positive.
  • If TWAP is equal to or below $0.18, the provisional outcome is negative.
  • An unchallenged outcome can finalize automatically.
  • A challenged outcome is reviewed with evidence before finalization.

Creator boundaries

A creator cannot choose the outcome, change the source after opening, act as resolver or finalizer for their own market, disregard predefined rules, or cancel a market merely to avoid an outcome.

Related: Markets & Categories →

Protocol

Canton Integration

The target architecture separates authorization, contract state, token workflows, and external evidence retrieval.

Conceptual Target Architecture

Architecture

  1. Email Login / Bayzen App
  2. Generated Wallet / Canton Party
  3. Eligibility Credential
  4. Daml Market Contracts
  5. Canton Token Standard / CC
  6. Off-Chain Resolver
  7. Final Outcome & Payout
  8. Signal Passport

Responsibilities

  • In the target design, the application would provision or associate an application wallet with a Canton Party hosted on a participant node. The Party authorizes ledger actions through its signing setup while Daml contracts and Canton participant nodes enforce authorization and transaction validity. Custody, signing, recovery, and Party-hosting choices remain under review.
  • A Party ID represents a participant within Canton.
  • Daml contracts define market lifecycle and authorization rules.
  • Canton Token Standard supports interoperable CC workflows.
  • The off-chain resolver retrieves external evidence.
  • A planned Bayzen validator would host Bayzen-operated parties and store or execute only contract data relevant to those parties.
  • Canton delivers encrypted transaction views to participant nodes hosting entitled parties.
Not liveThis diagram does not claim that contracts, generated-wallet provisioning, a validator, audits, or production infrastructure are complete.

Selective disclosure applies to Bayzen application contracts. Current Canton documentation states that CC balances and transaction history are publicly visible through the network scan service.

Related: Developer Overview →

Trust & Safety

Creator & Participant Eligibility

Market Participant and Market Creator are non-exclusive roles on one generated wallet. A creator may participate in markets published by others but cannot take a paid position in their own market.

Conceptual Target Design

Own-market restriction

The own-market restriction applies to the publisher's Party ID, other wallets under the publisher's control, known linked Party IDs, and accounts under the publisher's beneficial control. It does not prevent the publisher from participating in markets published by others.

  1. Verified Identity
  2. Identity Commitment
  3. Eligibility Credential
  4. Registered Party IDs

Eligibility Credential

A conceptual EligibilityCredential contains an identity commitment or hash, a registered Party ID, eligibility status, expiration, and restriction status. Real-world identity or KYC data is not placed directly on the ledger.

Bayzen-generated wallets and Party IDs associated with the same verified identity use the same identity commitment. A position transaction must satisfy:

Conceptual rule
participantIdentityCommitment
must not equal
publisherIdentityCommitment

A matching commitment causes the Daml transaction to be rejected. A new Party without a valid credential cannot take a position.

Limits and protection layers

Canton does not automatically determine whether every wallet belongs to the same person and does not provide a public global wallet graph. These controls reduce risk but cannot guarantee complete prevention of identity borrowing, Sybil behavior, or collusion.

Protection layers can include verified identity, Party linking, eligibility credentials, position and market limits, app-level risk signals, manual review, SP-bond slashing, account suspension, and an appeal process. Exact fraud-detection thresholds, device signals, and risk formulas are intentionally not published.

Related: Market Rules & Risks →

Trust & Safety

Market Rules & Risks

Prediction markets involve uncertainty, evidence dependencies, and the possibility of financial loss.

Protocol Draft — subject to legal and security review.

Core risk statements

  • Participation can result in financial loss.
  • Estimated payouts are not guaranteed.
  • Public Mainnet access may depend on jurisdiction and eligibility.
  • Resolution depends on predefined sources and rules.
  • Data-source failure can result in cancellation and refund.
  • Bayzen does not guarantee profit.
  • Bayzen does not guarantee Featured App approval or validator rewards.
  • Identity controls reduce but do not eliminate Sybil and collusion risks.

Implementation status

Compliance controls and access restrictions must not be described as active until they are implemented and reviewed. This page is not a final Terms of Use or Privacy Policy, and it does not claim that KYC, AML, sanctions screening, or geo-blocking is currently active.

Related: FAQ →

Build

Developer Overview

A concise map of the components required to implement the target protocol.

Conceptual — interfaces may change before Mainnet.

Target components

Interface

Frontend

Market discovery, creation, positions, challenges, and performance views.

Application

Backend

Application coordination, planned Token Standard allocation workflows, and policy-controlled services.

Ledger

Daml contracts

Market lifecycle, authorization, resolution state, settlement instructions, and receipt logic.

Account

Wallet provisioning

Email authentication, unique wallet and Party provisioning, transaction authorization, and signing.

Evidence

Resolver service

External evidence retrieval and rule evaluation.

Read model

Database / indexer

Searchable application views and analytics.

Infrastructure

Bayzen validator

Planned hosting for Bayzen-operated parties and their relevant contract state.

Conceptual Daml templates

Interfaces may change
EligibilityCredential
Market
CreatorSPBond
CCPosition
MarketPool
ResolutionProposal
Challenge
FinalOutcome
PayoutClaim
FeeAllocation
SignalPassportReceipt

CCPosition and MarketPool are application-state concepts. The target design uses Canton Network Token Standard workflows for CC funding and payout; these names do not imply that a custom market contract directly holds CC.

API statusAPI documentation will be published after the interface stabilizes during Devnet and Testnet.

No SDK package, API endpoint, contract address, validator identifier, Mainnet URL, or production code example is published here.

Related: Canton Integration →

Build

Roadmap

Bayzen moves from local development through network testing and readiness review before a public release.

In Development · Not Live

Release flow

  1. Local Development
  2. Devnet
  3. Testnet
  4. Mainnet Readiness Review
  5. Public Mainnet

Planned phases

Q3 2026

Build & Validate

  • Product documentation and app development.
  • Daml market contracts, Canton Token Standard workflows, email authentication, and generated wallet / Party provisioning.
  • Reusable SP bond, creator fee allocation, CC position, payout, resolver, and challenge workflows.
  • Devnet and Testnet validation.
  • Security, resolution, settlement, privacy, legal, and operational readiness checks.
Q3 2026

Public Mainnet

  • Proceed only after all readiness checks pass.
  • Move directly from readiness review to the public release; no intermediate production-access phase is planned.
  • A launch date is not guaranteed when readiness checks remain open.
Q4 2026

Mainnet Expansion

  • Expand access after launch reliability and settlement readiness are proven.
  • Grow liquidity and resolver coverage with monitored market access.
Q1 2027

Core Expansion

  • More market families and expanded multi-source resolver coverage.
  • Premium analytics and institutional workflows.
  • Market discovery, alerts, and additional research-backed market formats.
Related: Developer Overview →

Resources

Bayzen Protocol Whitepaper v0.1 — Draft

A future consolidated description of Bayzen's market, settlement, identity, evidence, and Canton architecture assumptions.

PDF · Coming Soon

Outline

  1. Abstract
  2. Product Problem
  3. Market Design
  4. Signal Point Bond
  5. CC Position and Payout
  6. Resolution Model
  7. Publisher and Participant Eligibility
  8. Signal Passport
  9. Canton Architecture
  10. Security Assumptions
  11. Limitations
  12. Roadmap
  13. References
No downloadable PDF yetThe whitepaper remains a protocol draft. This documentation does not create or imply a finished PDF.
Related: Research Foundations →

Resources

Research Foundations

Five practical foundations inform Bayzen's approach to information aggregation, scoring, pooled settlement, and identity risk.

Core sources

  1. Prediction Markets. Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz (2004), Prediction Markets (opens in a new tab). Prediction markets can aggregate distributed information when design and participation are appropriate.
  2. Brier Score. Glenn W. Brier (1950), Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability (opens in a new tab). This work provides a foundation for measuring probabilistic forecasting performance.
  3. Strictly Proper Scoring Rules. Tilmann Gneiting and Adrian E. Raftery (2007), Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation (opens in a new tab). Proper scoring rules can encourage honest confidence reporting.
  4. Pari-Mutuel Aggregation. E. Eisenberg and David Gale (1959), Consensus of Subjective Probabilities: The Pari-Mutuel Method (opens in a new tab). The paper provides a scientific basis for pooled pari-mutuel aggregation.
  5. Sybil Threat Model. John R. Douceur (2002), The Sybil Attack (opens in a new tab). It explains why multiple digital identities cannot automatically be treated as different people.
Research is not a guaranteeThese works inspire Bayzen's design. They do not prove that Bayzen will be profitable, manipulation-free, or secure, and they do not replace implementation review or security testing.
Related: Signal Passport →

Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

Short answers about the target product, protocol, and current development status.

Questions

What is Bayzen?

Bayzen is a Canton-native platform for creator-made prediction markets across crypto and traditional assets, protocol events, project milestones, and ecosystem events. Research-backed forecasts become measurable, verifiable track records.

What markets does Bayzen support?

The target categories are Canton and crypto markets, stocks and ETFs, futures and perpetuals, commodities, protocol events, project milestones, and ecosystem events.

What happens after email verification?

The current prototype simulates a generated wallet. In the target design, the application would provision or associate a wallet with a Canton Party; Participant and Creator roles would use that same application identity without generating another wallet when roles change.

What are Signal Points?

Signal Points are non-purchasable, non-transferable creation credits that form a Quality Bond and return for reuse after clean resolution.

Can SP be purchased or transferred?

No. SP cannot be purchased, transferred, exchanged for CC, or redeemed for money.

How does a creator receive SP again?

After a clean final resolution, the creator's locked SP bond returns for reuse. Publisher Mode does not add an automatic SP bonus.

Can a creator take a position in their own market?

No. The target design blocks the creator and registered Party IDs linked to the same identity commitment in that market. The creator may take positions in markets published by other eligible creators.

How does a creator earn from a market?

After clean resolution, Publisher Mode releases 20% of the 2% settlement fee to the creator up to the cap published before opening, equal to 0.4% of the losing pool before that cap. No publisher reward is paid when a market is cancelled or invalid.

What is an Eligibility Credential?

It is a conceptual credential that links an eligible Party ID to an identity commitment and records eligibility, expiration, and restriction status without placing real-world identity data directly on the ledger.

Why are CC positions pooled?

The MVP target uses a pooled pari-mutuel design so winning participants can share the distributable pool proportionally after the final outcome.

How are estimated payouts calculated?

A participant's estimate is their share of the winning pool multiplied by the distributable pool. It can change until closing and is not guaranteed.

How are markets resolved?

An off-chain resolver reads the predefined source, applies the fixed rule, and submits a provisional outcome. Daml contracts enforce the challenge deadline and allowed transition; off-chain automation submits finalization when the result remains unchallenged.

What happens if the data source fails?

The fallback source or cancellation rule applies. If reliable resolution is impossible, positions may be refunded and the creator's bond returned when the failure was outside the creator's control. No settlement fee or publisher reward is paid.

What happens if a market is challenged?

The provisional outcome and submitted evidence are reviewed against the fixed market rule before finalization. An upheld challenge may correct the outcome or void the market; the publisher's bond is slashed only when predeclared rules establish publisher fault or manipulation.

What happens if a market is cancelled?

Participant positions are refunded. Creator SP treatment depends on whether the cancellation resulted from creator fault or an external issue.

What is Signal Passport?

Signal Passport is a planned performance record covering publisher probabilities, Brier Score, calibration, market quality, and capped reward history, with participant position results and CC profit or loss tracked separately.

Why is Bayzen built on Canton?

The target design uses Canton for Party-based authorization, privacy-aware transaction views, Daml workflows, and interoperable CC settlement.

Is Bayzen already live on Mainnet?

No. Bayzen is in development and will proceed to Public Mainnet only after all readiness checks pass.

Are profits or rewards guaranteed?

No. Participation can result in loss, estimated payouts can change, publisher rewards are conditional and capped, and validator rewards are not guaranteed.

Related: Glossary →

Resources

Glossary

Plain-language definitions for the core terms used throughout this documentation.

Terms

Bayzen
A Canton-native prediction market designed to turn research-backed forecasts into measurable records.
Market Creator
An eligible user who locks research, a declared forecast, and SP as a Quality Bond before publishing a market.
Participant
An eligible user who takes one of a market's two outcome positions with CC.
Positive Pool
The total CC committed to the positive outcome in a market.
Negative Pool
The total CC committed to the negative outcome in a market.
Signal Points
Non-purchasable, non-transferable creation credits that return for reuse after clean resolution.
Quality Bond
SP locked while a creator's market moves through review and resolution, then returned or burned according to the outcome.
Publisher Mode
A per-market policy state that applies when the user is the market creator. It blocks the same wallet and verified identity from paid positions in that market while allowing participation in markets created by others.
Publisher Reward
A 20% share of the 2% settlement fee up to the cap published before opening, equal to 0.4% of the losing pool before that cap.
Canton Coin
The asset used for market positions, settlement, payouts, refunds, and applicable settlement fees.
Eligibility Credential
A conceptual credential recording whether a Party ID may participate.
Identity Commitment
A privacy-preserving commitment or hash used to link registered Party IDs belonging to the same eligible identity.
Party ID
A Canton identifier representing a participant in authorized workflows.
Resolver
An off-chain service that retrieves predefined evidence and calculates a provisional result.
Provisional Outcome
A rule-based result submitted before the challenge window ends.
Challenge Window
The defined period in which a provisional outcome may be disputed with evidence.
Final Outcome
The conclusive result used for payout or refund processing.
Signal Passport
A planned record that separates publisher forecast quality from participant position results.
Brier Score
A scoring method applied to the publisher's declared probability; lower binary Brier loss indicates better calibration.
TWAP
Time-weighted average price over a predefined interval.
Related: Overview →